Nastase Group ATP 2024 Qualification Scenarios: Who can make it to the Semis?

The 2024 ATP Finals are currently moving towards the business end of the competition featuring the Top 8 players of the season vying for the prestigious year-ending Championships.

In the Ilie Nastase Group, which includes Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, and Alex de Minaur, the players are gearing up for their final set of round-robin matches.

Sinner almost through to the Semi-Finals 

Jannik Sinner is in a strong position to advance to the semifinals after his victories over Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz. If he secures a win against Medvedev in his final match, he will emerge as the group winner. However, even if he loses, he still retains opportunities for qualification.

Jannik Sinner's path to qualifying for the semifinals hinges on his performance against Daniil Medvedev. For Sinner to be at risk of elimination, he would need to lose to Medvedev in straight sets, while Taylor Fritz must also secure a straight-sets victory over Alex de Minaur. 

Medvedev needs to win to qualify 

After a challenging start with a 4-6, 3-6 loss to Fritz, Medvedev has bounced back, earning a convincing 6-2, 6-4 victory against De Minaur. As Medvedev prepares to face Sinner in their final group league match, a win for him would not only solidify his position but also ensure a Top 4 spot, provided Fritz triumphs in his match against De Minaur. A defeat for Medvedev in the final match may show him the doors of exit.

Fritz is just a win away from Semis 

Taylor Fritz has already tasted victory against Medvedev but fell to Sinner in his next match. For Fritz to march forward, he must defeat De Minaur in straight sets. Even if he loses a set, he requires Medvedev to either drop a set or lose his match against Sinner. If the Italian secures a win, Fritz simply needs a victory to move forward.

Alex de Minaur needs to pull off an upset 

Alex de Minaur faces a tough challenge ahead in his pursuit of advancing to the semifinals, having lost both of his matches in straight sets. For him to keep his hopes alive, he needs to secure a victory against Fritz in straight sets while hoping that Medvedev loses in straight sets to Sinner. 

This outcome would introduce the percentage of games won into the mix, potentially providing a pathway for the World No. 9 to advance. However, it’s worth noticing that both Medvedev and Fritz have been performing well, winning 51 per cent of their games, compared to de Minaur's 35 per cent.