As Max Verstappen celebrates his fourth consecutive World Championship with two races still to run, the paddock is abuzz with speculation. Among the myriad “what-ifs” of the season, one question stands out for McLaren fans: What if Oscar Piastri had been their first-choice driver from the outset? Could the young Australian have mounted a genuine title challenge or, at the very least, offered a sterner battle to Verstappen and Red Bull?
A Tale of Two Drivers: Piastri vs. Norris
McLaren’s 2024 resurgence has been nothing short of a spectacle with both Piastri and Lando Norris delivering standout performances. Yet, while Norris often edged ahead in key moments, Piastri’s debut full season showcased flashes of brilliance that hint at his immense potential.
A detailed look at the results shows a fascinating pattern:
The graph above provides a visual representation of the cumulative points tally for Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris, and Max Verstappen throughout the 2024 Formula 1 season.
Key Observations from the Data:
- Piastri’s Steady Growth:
- Piastri’s cumulative points show a consistent rise, with standout performances in Hungary, Azerbaijan, and Singapore.
- However, early inconsistencies, particularly in Miami and China, led to a slower buildup compared to his teammate and Verstappen.
- Norris as the Benchmark:
- Norris maintained a steadier trajectory, outperforming Piastri in several critical races (e.g., China, Britain, and the Netherlands).
- His peak in the mid-season period helped McLaren remain competitive against Red Bull.
- Verstappen’s Dominance:
- Verstappen's lead becomes evident as the season progresses, with sharp upward spikes in his graph due to commanding wins.
- By the mid-season, his points haul put him in a league of his own, making it nearly impossible for McLaren drivers to challenge his title charge.
Additional Insights:
- Piastri’s peak moments, such as his wins in Hungary and Azerbaijan, are clear in the graph, showing his potential as a future title contender.
- Norris’s ability to consistently outperformed Piastri in points-heavy races, such as China and the Netherlands, underscores his current edge in experience and racecraft.
- Verstappen’s early lead, coupled with consistency, illustrates why Red Bull retained their dominance despite McLaren's improvements.
These data-backed insights reinforce that while Piastri’s performances were remarkable, McLaren's fight for the title was more of a collective effort rather than hinging solely on one driver.
Could Piastri Have Challenged Verstappen?
Verstappen’s dominance in 2024 was underpinned by Red Bull’s unparalleled car performance, especially in high-speed circuits. Even a flawless season from a McLaren driver would likely not have been enough to dethrone him. Yet, there’s a compelling argument that Piastri could have pushed Verstappen closer if only McLaren committed to him as their primary driver:
- Early Momentum: With full team backing, Piastri might have built momentum in the early rounds, closing the gap to Red Bull before Verstappen’s mid-season surge.
- Strategic Aggression: A more aggressive strategy focused on Piastri could have yielded higher finishes in races like Spain and Miami.
- Head-to-Head Battles: Piastri’s wheel-to-wheel racing improved dramatically as the season progressed, suggesting he could have taken more points off Verstappen in direct battles.
Verdict: A Future Champion in the Making
While Piastri may not have clinched the title in 2024 even as McLaren’s first choice, his performances suggest he has all the tools to be a future World Champion. With better consistency, sharper strategy, and experience, he could be the one to end Red Bull’s dominance in the coming years.
For now, McLaren must savour their dual-driver success in a season where they went from midfield obscurity to race winners. And as they look to 2025, perhaps the real challenge lies not in choosing a first-choice driver but in fostering a partnership that brings out the best in both Piastri and Norris—a combination that might finally topple Verstappen.