WTC 2025: Qualification scenarios for all teams after India’s win over Bangladesh

Team India won the first Test against Bangladesh in Chennai by 280 runs to move closer to their third final appearance in World Test Championships. The final of the third cycle will be played at Lord’s in June 2025. The last two times India lost to New Zealand and Australia in the finals of the tournament. 

Sri Lanka are on the verge of registering a win over New Zealand in the first Test match in Galle. This will be the second successive win for Dhananjaya De Silva led side after their huge win over England in Oval. There are four teams in contention apart from India to make it to the finals of the World Test Championships in 2025. 

Rohit Sharma and his men will take on New Zealand next before their cycle ends with a tour of Australia. England will play Pakistan next away from home before heading for a tour of New Zealand. 

Complete scenarios for World Test Championships finals 

1. India – 71.67%

Team India leads the World Test Championships table with 7 wins 2 losses and one drawn game from ten games. India have one more Test against Bangladesh and three more against New Zealand at home. If the Indian side wins these four Test matches they will secure their spot at the top of the table. Rohit Sharma and his team has to make sure they don’t lose 5-0 to Australia, which could see their win percentage a hit. 

2. Australia – 62.5% 

Pat Cummins and his men just have five Test matches left to play in this cycle of WTC. The Australians haven’t won the Border Gavaskar Trophy for a long time. The current holders of the Test champions will hope to win all their games. The only way Australia could miss out on the finals if they happen to lose or draw a few games against India at home.

3- Sri Lanka – 50% 

With four wins and four losses from 8 games (before the final outcome of 1st Test vs New Zealand), Sri Lanka are third in the table. Dhananjaya De Silva led side will be the favorites to win the 2nd Test. They still have one Test to play against the Kiwis followed by a tour of South Africa. The tour of South Africa will be a tough one as Sri Lanka will have to avoid a series loss. Only a series win with a comprehensive margin can see the Lankans play the World Test Championships finals. 

4- New Zealand – 42.85%

Tim Southee and his side are on the verge of a loss to Sri Lanka and they now have to win the 2nd Test. Their tour of India where the Kiwis play three Test matches will be off key importance. New Zealand had won the inaugural title in 2021 after beating India. Kiwis have to prevent a series whitewash to keep their sagging hopes of reaching the finals. Their final series of this cycle will be against Australia at home where they play 2 matches. 

5- England – 42.19%

After winning 5 Test matches on the trot, England lost the final game of their summer to Sri Lanka. That loss hampered their win percentage which could have seen them retain their faint hopes of playing the finals. Now Ben Stokes and his side have to win 3-0 against Pakistan also hope the other results go their way. 

6- Bangladesh – 39.29%

The loss in Chennai was a dagger in the heart for Najmul Shanto and his men. After the historic series whitewash win in Pakistan, the Bangladeshi side came to India high on confidence. Shanto’s side now has to beat India in Kanpur and also win both their away Tests against West Indies. This alone wont get them closer to the top two because they also have to ensure that the other results to go their way. 

7- South Africa – 38.89% 

It is a clear scenario for the South Africans as they have to win all their matches. With home series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan left, South Africa will be favorites to win that. Their biggest challenge is the away tour of Bangladesh where spin is set to play a huge role. 

Others – Pakistan 19.05% and West Indies 18.52%

The bottom two sides of the World Test Championships are down and more or less out. To have any realistic chance of making it to the top two both Pakistan and West Indies have to win their remaining series and hope the other results go their way. Even that won’t suffice as their win percentage is way below 20%. 

Note - The scenarios were before the completion of the Sri Lanka vs New Zealand Test match