WTC 2025 Final: The qualification scenarios for all teams, India, Australia under pressure

The contest to qualify for the WTC 2023-25 Final is getting thrilling and interesting as the time gets closer to the iconic clash next year. The prestigious cricket biennial’s final is more likely to be played at the mecca of cricket, Lord’s in London. All the participating teams in the tournaments will be desperately eyeing securing a berth in the title clash to become the champions in the traditional format of the game.

From top to bottom in the WTC standings, all teams have several Tests to play to ensure qualification to the final WTC’s 2023-25 cycle.

With that said, here we’ll look at the different scenarios for all teams, placed in the other spots on the World Test Championship 2023-25 table. From table toppers India to the ‘down and out’ West Indies, all teams will have to go through a tough time to see their name on the scoreboard of the WTC 2023-25 final.

Here’s a look at the Qualifications Scenarios for the WTC Finals

India

The successive two-time runners-up India are currently leading the tournament standings in the ongoing third edition of the championship. They are in the best position to secure a berth in the WTC 2025 final. They have played 9 matches in the WTC 2023-25 cycle, winning six matches and losing two, alongside a ‘drawn’ game. For the third successive appearance in the WTC final, they’ll have to go through the following scenarios;

1.       Winning 6-7 games out of the remaining 10 Tests in the current cycle, will confirm a spot for India in the WTC 2025 final.

2.      Defeating Bangladesh [2 Tests] and New Zealand [3 Tests], and winning all five home Tests will release pressure from them ahead of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy against the defending champions Australia.

3.      Rohit Sharma’s men can’t afford to lose a couple of Tests on their home soil. It will make them feel the pressure to keep their spot ‘untouched’ in the points table, making BGT a must-win Test series for them.

4.      India beating Australia will put the latter in immense pressure winning their remaining Two Tests against Sri Lanka at any cost.

Australia

The reigning champions are in the second spot of the points table, with eight wins, three defeats and a ‘drawn’ game in the 12 matches they have played. They are currently left with the 7 tests before the WTC 2025 Final. So, to defend their title and lift the trophy for the second successive time, Aussies are supposed to perform according to the following scenarios; 

1.       Win a minimum of four out of their remaining seven Tests in the current cycle to have a PCT of 63.16 or more than that.

2.      If Australia lose by 0-5, 0-4 or 1-4 against India in the BGT on their home soil, they will be knocked out of the contention for the WTC 2025 Final. They’ll get the maximum PCT of only 57.9 with one win against India and two wins against Sri Lanka.

3.      In case of a series defeat against India by 0-3, 1-2 or 1-3 in the home edition of BGT, they will be not in any position to lose even one Test against Sri Lanka, making a clean sweep win with 2-0 a must-achieve result. It will help them stay relevant in the race for the WTC 2025 Final.

New Zealand

The inaugural champions of the World Test Championship didn’t find a place in the Final of the tournament’s second edition last year. In the ongoing edition of the tournament, they are in the third spot of the table, winning and losing three matches each in the six matches they have played. They have now 8 tests remaining of their campaign in the WTC 2023-25 cycle. To play another WTC final after four years, the Kiwis have the below-mentioned path to follow;

1.       Must win five out of the remaining eight fixtures in the tournament to achieve the PCT of 57.14 and keep a chance alive for the qualification to the WTC 2025 Final.

2.      The Blackcaps must win a minimum of three out of their five overseas Tests, against Sri Lanka [2 Tests] and India [3 Tests]. It will avoid a bit of pressure from them while heading to the three-match home series against England.

3.      Failing to win even a single Test against Sri Lanka and India will knock the Kiwis out of the WTC Final 2025 Final’s picture, with a PCT of only 42.85.

Sri Lanka

The ‘number 4’ in the standings, Sri Lanka are in the fourth spot in the tournament’s points table, with two wins and two defeats in the four Tests they have played. They have 9 matches left to play in the current cycle of the tournament. For their first-ever WTC Final appearance, the Islanders have a very tough road to cover.

1.       They can reach up to 84.62 PCT, the second maximum PCT after India.

2.      They must win at least six of the nine Tests in WTC 2023-25 to take their PCT to 61.54, giving them a big chance of qualifying for the WTC 2025 Final.

3.      Win three of the five away Tests to get a bit of relief from the pressure during the home series against Australia and New Zealand.

4.      Facing England away in August will push them into a do-or-die situation in the remaining six Tests if they fail to win even one Test in England.

5.      If they win their upcoming series against England, they will kick England out of the race for the WTC 2025 Final.

Pakistan

One of the important South Asian teams, Pakistan hadn’t been through an expected run of form in the first two editions of the World Test Championship. Besides that, they are also struggling in the ongoing WTC 2023-25 edition, which makes their way to the Final quite tough compared to the other teams.

1.       Pakistan must win at least six of the nine remaining Tests in WTC 2023-25 to stay relevant in contention for the final.

2.      Shan Masood-led side has seven remaining Tests at home. They should win at least five of them as it will keep them in the race for qualification to the WTC Final.

3.      The two Tests against South Africa will play a crucial role as winning both matches will boost their PCT above 55 per cent.

4.      Pakistan winning the series against England will knock the latter out of the WTC 2025 final contention.

South Africa

The Proteas are currently in the fifth spot of the tournament standings after playing six matches so far. In the six matches they have played, SA have won two and lost three games, alongside a ‘drawn’ fixture. It will not be an easy task for them to reach the WTC 2024 Final, making most of their remaining matches must-win in the current edition of the tournament.

1.       South Africa are left with the eight Tests in the WTC 2023-25 cycle. SA, along with Bangladesh, are playing the least number of matches in the WTC 2023-25 cycle (12 Tests).

2.      The Proteas will only be in contention for the WTC 2025 qualification if they can win at least seven of their eight Tests, taking their PCT to 61.54.

Bangladesh

One of the ‘struggling’ sides in the ongoing WTC 2023-25, Bangladesh are at the eighth spot of the points table with a win and three defeats in the four matches so far. They have faced successive wins in the last three matches they have played.

1.       Just like South Africa, Bangladesh have also won just one of their four games in the WTC 2023-25 cycle. They are playing the least Tests in this WTC 2023-25 cycle with a total of just 12 Tests. They need to win seven of their remaining eight Tests to stay in contention at 61.54 PCT.

2.      They will play six of their remaining eight matches overseas. It will deteriorate their chances of being in contention because losing even one game will knock them out of the WTC 2025 Final contention.

3.      If they win against both India and Pakistan in their respective series, they will dampen the chances of those two as they will fall into a must-win scenario heading into their respective future Test assignments.

England

The flagbearers of the new ‘Bazball’ brand of cricket, England haven’t been through a pleasing run of form in both the first and second editions of the World Test Championship. Even in the ongoing edition of the tournament, the Three Lions are struggling in the seventh spot of the standings after playing 13 matches, winning and losing six matches each, alongside a ‘drawn’ game.

They have 22 matches to play in the current edition, most for any team in the WTC cycle.

1.       The Englishmen have 9 Tests remaining in their current campaign, and winning all 9 of those will take their PCT to 68.18, giving them a realistic chance of qualification. With this performance, they will knock West Indies, Pakistan and New Zealand out of contention

2.      If they lose two or more Tests in the remaining 11, they will be knocked out of WTC 2025 Final contention.

West Indies

The ‘down-and-out’ West Indies have been enduring a miserable run in the ongoing edition of the World Test Championship 2025, winning only one and losing six matches out of their nine matches so far. Their campaign also includes two ‘drawn’ games in the ongoing edition. They have already been knocked out of the WTC 2025 Final contention.