Eight races, one dream: Analyzing Lando Norris’s chances to steal 2024 Formula 1 championship from Max Verstappen

The 2024 Formula 1 season has been termed a Silly season for many reasons. From early movements in the drivers’ market to some setbacks it has been a roller coaster ride for everyone. However, the biggest drama will happen in the last race of the season which might dethrone Max Verstappen from the world championship title. But can Lando Norris win F1 title in 2024? The answer depends on the performance of McLaren driver Lando Norris. 

An uphill task for Lando Norris

Lando Norris’s journey to potentially win the 2024 Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship is a steep uphill battle, but not entirely out of reach. Statistically, Norris would need to overcome a significant points deficit, and as Formula 1 fans know, closing such gaps is no easy feat.

With eight races remaining in the season, Norris has accumulated 79.5% of Max Verstappen’s points total. This gap, while large, is not entirely unprecedented in the world of Formula 1, but it would require a perfect storm of circumstances for Norris to secure the title.

Have someone overcome this deficit in past?

Historically, only one driver has managed to overcome a similarly large margin in recent memory: Kimi Raikkonen in 2007. Raikkonen entered the final stretch of that season with 74.3% of the points that championship leader Lewis Hamilton had, a situation remarkably similar to what Norris faces now. Raikkonen ultimately went on to win the championship dramatically, proving that such comebacks, though rare, are possible.

However, there are important differences between Raikkonen’s 2007 comeback and the situation Norris faces in 2024. The Formula 1 points system has changed over the years, making direct comparisons difficult. In 2007, Raikkonen was within two race victories of overtaking Hamilton’s lead. In contrast, Norris is currently two-and-a-half race victories behind Verstappen, a more daunting gap under the current scoring system.

A ray of hope for Lando Norris: Sprint races

Adding some hope to Norris’s chances, the 2024 season includes three sprint races, offering up to 24 additional points. While these extra points might seem like a lifeline, they’re still not enough on their own to close the gap entirely.

In total, with eight full races and three sprint races left, Norris has nine opportunities to score points, but he would need near-flawless performances—and Verstappen would need to falter—for the gap to shrink significantly. Ultimately, while Norris’s statistical position might give fans some optimism, it would take an extraordinary sequence of events for Max Verstappen to lose his grip on the F1 2024 title race. As things stand, Verstappen’s dominance appears likely to continue, but in Formula 1, surprises do happen—however rare they may be.